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The “Messi effect” on MLS so far…

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There’s no denying that Messi’s arrival to MLS in August has had an impact of unprecedented proportions. It not unusual for some current (early 2000s: ‘David Beckham effect’ on MLS) or retired athletes (Now: ‘Deion Sanders effect’ on NCAA football) to have an effect in their sports; however, in Messi’s case, multiple aspects of MLS have been deeply and permanently impacted by the now well-known “Messi effect”. Below is a brief summary of its impact so far:

Joana outside “La Bombonera” stadium in Buenos Aires
  • Increased global attention: Lionel Messi is one of the greatest footballers of all time and already had a massive global following. His arrival in MLS attracted substantial attention from not only American fans, media, and sponsors but worldwide too. MLS is benefitting from increased exposure, TV ratings, merchandise sales, and more international viewership. Since his arrival, Messi helped Inter Miami win its first trophy just a few weeks after joining the team. In his first 11 games with Inter Miami, the team won 10 and tied 1. In those games, Messi scored 11 goals and recorded 8 assists. With those numbers, it’s inevitable to not garner global attention.
  • Boost in attendance: Messi’s presence in MLS stadiums has increased attendance numbers. Every stadium where Messi has played has sold out. Fans (casual and hard-core) are eager to see one of the world’s best players in action. His participation in games has resulted in increased ticket sales (527% increase in prices) and higher game-day revenues.
  • Television (Apple tv) ratings and subscriptions: Inter Miami matches have experienced an exponential boost in television ratings. MLS Season Pass, which is Apple’s streaming package that broadcasts soccer matches, experienced a 1690% increase in sign-ups the day Messi first played for his new club. Broadcasters are excited to showcase Messi’s skills (in multiple languages) and MLS’ TV deals are becoming more lucrative abroad. Higher ratings have inevitably attracted more advertisers and sponsors.
  • Enhanced brand value: Messi’s arrival to the league has elevated its brand value and prestige. It’s now very common to see celebrities in attendance whenever Messi plays. He has not done it alone though, former Barcelona teammates Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba joined Inter Miami which only continued to elevate the club’s AND the league’s value. Inter Miami’s worth prior to Messi’s arrival was $575 million. As of September 15th, that value is now near $1 billion and estimated to be in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion in 2024.
  • Financial impact: While the signing of Messi required a significant financial investment -he earns an estimated $50 – $60 million annually-, his signing has led to an exponential overall revenue for the league. ESPN reported that in the first 24 hours of Messi jersey sales, it was the best 24 hours of any player’s changing teams across all sports. Messi’s Inter Miami jerseys were conveniently out of stock until a couple of days ago, they are currently priced at $180 each. Sponsorship deals, merchandise sales, and international interest have generated additional income enabling MLS to potentially reinvest in infrastructure, youth development, and player salaries making the league even more attractive and financially competitive with top continental leagues such as Liga MX and Campeonato Brasileiro.
  • Player development and competition: Messi’s presence serves as a tremendous opportunity for young MLS players. Training and competing alongside one of the best players in the world has elevated the level of play of those around him (ex. Campana, Cremaschi, Allen, etc.). Elevating the competitive level of his teammates and opponents can gradually contribute to the overall development of domestic talent; thus improving the leagues’ competitiveness and who knows, maybe the US national team pool. Prior to Messi’s arrival, Inter Miami had only won 10/28 games, drawn 3 and lost 15. They were in last place and now, they are fighting for a playoff spot with a few games remaining in the season.

Unfortunately, not all the Messi effect’s and influence has had a positive effect on fans. See, I was refereeing this past weekend when out of the corner of my eye, I spot a soccer parent walking down the experts’ sideline trying to get his son’s attention while the match is going on. Once, he succeeded, he instructs his son, who at the time was playing as a forward, to forget about playing defense and play like Messi. We, other parents and myself, were all puzzled when the following emanated from his mouth: “Don’t defend anymore, just stay up and wait for the ball to come to you; only run when the ball is 5 feet away from you; that’s how Messi plays and he is successful at it”. The kid incredulous heeded his father’s instructions the remaining of the match.

Needless to say, his son’s team ended up losing the game badly as they practically played down a player and the son never touched the ball again in the match. Moral of the story, be careful instructing your children with stuff you see on TV without the proper knowledge, context and background. Sometimes, in an effort to help our kids, we prevent them from progressing. This supportive father, imparted some useful wisdom onto his son that ended up serving a completely unintended effect on his son (and his team) in part thanks to the “Messi effect”.

Texas soccer fans wearing Messi jerseys

Keep in mind that there’s only one Messi, and as simple as the game is, his greatness stems from making the simple game look even simpler. The “Messi effect” will gradually fade and we will be left with his legacy. For now, enjoy him while you can and if you are planning to watch him live, remember to not pay the exuberant ticket prices unless you are certain he will be playing. See below what some fans played for the Orlando vs Miami game last Sunday and Messi, Jordi, and Busquets did not play.

Part of the reason the ex-Barcelona trio did not play against Orlando was strategic. They need to rest for their Lamar Hunt US Open Cup championship match tomorrow night. That game, prior to Messi’s MLS arrival, would have taken place with little fanfare. Tomorrow, all the spotlights will be on Inter Miami, especially if Messi plays.

The opponent for that game will be Houston Dynamo and if Inter Miami is victorious, it could be Messi’s second trophy in the last 8 weeks. Stay tuned as he, and teammates, continue to shape up the “Messi effect” on MLS. Until next time, #theGomezway

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PK shoot-out tips provided by YOUR coach

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Two of the recently finished World Cup (WC) quarterfinal games reminded us that penalty kicks (PKs) shoot-outs are not the prettiest way to decide the outcome of a football match. PK shoot-outs are normally very dramatic, preceded by at least 120 minutes of intense (in most cases) action and some detractors tout them as the most unfair method to declare a match winner. Their argument is that the shoot-out relies heavily on luck rather than football skill. It has also been said that PKs are a dual effort instead of a collective team effort defeating the purpose of the team sport spirit.

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity” – Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Whatever your perception may be on overall luck and shoot-outs, a PK shoot-out is an approved method by FIFA laws to break a tie. Also, nobody can deny that being directly involved in the taking of even a single PK (more so a shoot-out) requires some level of technical preparation (sometimes years) and individual mental fortitude (aka nerve). Therefore, any edge that can be gained over the opponent to increase the chances of victory in a PK shoot-out is always welcome. Often neglected, that advantage can easily come from one’s bench. A coach’s experience is a very valuable tool if applied correctly and timely.

In the clip above LVG explains the selection of his PK takers prior to the WC

PK Shoot-out Preparation

I will not dwell too much on the pre-game efforts that the goal keeper (GK) coach, the team video analysis specialist, the team statistician, and the GKs themselves must undergo prior to embarking on a match that could be decided in a PK shoot-out. The preparation is not complex but indeed meticulous. It starts with trying to anticipate which five potential PK kickers will take a turn and study their PK kicking tendencies. On top of that, each GK has his/her own defensive diving tendencies to attempt to block PKs. Simply put, it comes down to video-analyzing the potential PK kickers to slightly increase the GK’s odds of stopping PKs.

Similarly, PK takers need to undergo a lengthier preparation which starts much earlier in their football careers than the upcoming game at hand. For example, in some youth leagues around the world, match ties are not allowed forcing PKs intentionally. Match outcomes are decided via a PK shoot-out with the underlying idea of developing better PK adult kickers who are not only more used to the added pressure but more technically sound in the art of PK taking via lots of repetitions. PK kickers rarely analyze GK tendencies as those diving techniques are reactive and situational.

All that pre-match preparation for PK kickers is indispensable and must be met at a minimum to be even considered as a genuine PK taker candidate especially at a world stage like a WC. However, there are meticulous decisions that must be made in the selection of the PK takers and the sequence in which PKs are taken by a team. Sure, luck (the coin tosses explained below) helps but the coach’s experience has a strong influence in the outcome of the shoot-out.

PK Shoot-out Execution

Some coaches will tell you that only those physically, and mentally fit prior to the taking of PKs should be eligible, listed and submitted to the referee as the initial five PK takers. Others will defer that decision to the players and captain. Ultimately, the coach knows his/her players best and it is best that those five PK takers are pre-determined and only changed in case of an unplanned event (ex. injury, red card, etc.). So, provided a manager has five physically and mentally capable PK kickers, then other decisions should be made by the coach and captain to maximize the chances of victory.

Normally, the referee will use two coin tosses prior to the taking of PKs. The winner of the first coin toss selects the side where PKs will be taken (Introduced in 2016). The winner of the second coin toss determines what team starts the PK shoot-out (Lloris won this one in the WC final). Yes, on this part of the procedure, there’s an element of luck but provided your captain wins both or either one of these coin tosses, instructions must be provided to the captain so that he/she choose the goal where most of your club’s supporters are; Messi probably conquered the Qatar WC the moment he won this first coin toss and selected the side that was plagued by Argentinian fans. On the second coin toss outcome, heed the following advice:

1.For advantages proven by simple statistics/research papers and psychological reasoning (beyond the scope of this simple post), a team captain, if able, should always elect to take the PKs first in a shoot-out. In a gist, it puts additional pressure on the players going second regardless of the outcome of the first kick. Therefore, ALWAYS elect to shoot first if you win the second coin toss. This is the way Morocco eliminated Spain from Qatar.

2. Always (I mean always) have your best PK kickers go first. In Brazil’s loss to Croatia in the WC quarterfinal game, Neymar was supposed to get all the glory by kicking last (5th). Unfortunately, quite the opposite took place. the team had the youngest (Rodrygo) of all PK kickers go first and that proved to be a decision they will regret forever. Neymar never had a chance to take his PK. It was possibly Neymar’s last WC game and to go out like that is unfortunate…Neymar and Tite (no longer the national team coach) will have to live with that decision.

As an additional data point, in the WC final game, both Mbappé and Messi went first. Both are no strangers to PK taking. Despite Mbappé having scored two PKs during the course of the championship game on Martínez, Kylian (and Didier DeChamps) elected Mbappé to go a third time (all kicked to the same side) against one of the best PK GKs in the world. He converted all three attempts and set the tone for the next PK (or at least that was the plan).

3. The first PK taker dictates momentum. Over 60% of the time when the first PK misses his/her shot, the following PK taker from the same team misses too. Therefore, carefully selecting the first PK taker is instrumental to the team’s success. If there are two medium quality PK kickers, do not, by any means, have them take kicks one after another in the round of five. In the WC final game, Coman missed his kick immediately followed by Tchouameni.

4. Managers sometimes forget that great players are not necessarily great PK takers. For example, in the Netherlands vs Argentina game, Van Dijk elected to take the team’s PK first; however, he’s not the normal PK taker with his Liverpool club (Mo Salah is). Unfortunately, the lack of practice became evident as his attempt was blocked by Emi Martínez. This proved to be a questionable decision by a very experienced Coach Louis Van Gaal.

The coin tosses are determined by an element of luck; beyond that, preparation pays off. In addition to field player and GK preparation, a manager (and his/her staff) has a lot of weight on the outcome of a PK shoot-out with careful thought-out decisions. Whether the manager and captain assume/want that responsibility is a different story. Either way, preparation is key and an initial 50% chance of victory in a shoot-out can easily become more like a 75% if preparation is taken seriously. As I was finalizing documentation to wrap up my post, I stumbled upon this article posted about 8 years ago titled “How to Win a PK shoot-out in soccer“. Ironically, a lot of the information presented in that article supports my post.

As I finish writing this post, I became aware of the passing of football’s legend: Pelé. Honestly, I can’t say this was unexpected as he had been hospitalized in Brazil for over a month and I tried to keep up with his medical progress which never seemed to improve. But even with that information, I can’t deny it was shocking; it’s hard to accept that in a little over than 2 years, the best two footballers, that in my opinion, have ever played the game now reside with the football gods…where they have cemented a place.

Until next time (tomorrow) when I will be posting our annual 2022 recap of events. Have a happy and safe New Year celebration. Be sure to follow us on Instagram below where we are more active. #theGomezway